{"verdicts": [{"ts": "2026-05-12T22:13:39.795354+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2866, "cached_read_tokens": 2327, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: Section VII (FORMAL PREDICTIONS) found with 4 explicit predictions. Three pass all 4 DEF01 criteria (PRED-1 REE Chokepoint, PRED-2 NATO Cohesion, PRED-4 Spain Pivot), meeting the ≥2 threshold. PRED-3 ", "confidence": 0.83}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:13:39.844222+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:14:12.138665+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2853, "cached_read_tokens": 2327, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: 3 of 4 visible formal predictions pass all 4 DEF01 criteria (≥2 required for PASS). Prediction 3 fails binary criterion due to compound causal structure linking EDA data to Council session convening. ", "confidence": 0.83}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:14:12.194340+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:16:34.012367+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2879, "cached_read_tokens": 2327, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: Two of four formal predictions (PRED-1-REE-CHOKEPOINT and PRED-2-NATO-IRAN-COHESION) pass all 4 DEF01 criteria, meeting the ≥2 threshold for PASS. PRED-3 fails Criterion 4 (actionability weak due to C", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:16:34.079545+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:42:00.384086+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2528, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: La sección §FORMAL PREDICTIONS existe y contiene 4 predicciones. Pred-1 (REE Chokepoint, P=65%) y Pred-2 (NATO Cohesion Iran, P=55%) pasan los 4 criterios DEF01, aunque ambas son condicionales con con", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:42:00.498192+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:50:49.918216+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2479, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: Section VII is present and contains 4 formal predictions. Three pass all 4 DEF01 criteria (PRED-1 conditional pass 4/4, PRED-2 conditional pass 4/4, PRED-4 pass 4/4). PRED-3 fails binary criterion due", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-12T22:50:50.001750+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T11:22:03.938416+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2513, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: 3 de 4 predicciones formales pasan los 4 criterios DEF01. PRED-1 (REE Chokepoint) y PRED-2 (NATO Cohesion) son ejemplares en binariedad, temporalidad y observabilidad. PRED-4 (Spain Pivot) pasa los 4 ", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T11:22:04.015389+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T11:34:19.661456+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.256, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: Section §FORMAL PREDICTIONS exists and contains 4 predictions. Three pass all 4 DEF01 criteria (Predictions 1, 2, 4). Prediction 3 fails binary and observable criteria due to conjunctive structure and", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T11:34:19.738807+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T19:29:01.327304+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "block", "cost_usd": 0.2524, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "CONDITIONAL-INSUFFICIENT: Only 1 of 4 formal predictions passes all 4 DEF01 criteria (Prediction 1 — REE Chokepoint, conditional on trigger). Prediction 3 fails binary (conjunctive condition). Predictions 2 and 4 fail temporal", "confidence": 0.88, "n_predictions_found": 4, "n_passing_all_4": 1}], "warnings": [], "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T19:29:01.436626+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": "l3", "l3_verdict": "block", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "forced", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T20:20:09.134735+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "block", "cost_usd": 0.2519, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "FAIL-ZERO-PASSING: Section VII exists and contains 4 formal predictions. None achieves 4/4 DEF01 criteria. Pred-1 (REE) fails Observable (intent-attribution, no resolution source). Pred-2 (NATO/Iran) fails Temporal (no ", "confidence": 0.87, "n_predictions_found": 4, "n_passing_all_4": 0}], "warnings": [], "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T20:20:09.204880+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": "l3", "l3_verdict": "block", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "forced", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T21:41:20.248525+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2481, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: 3 of 4 formal predictions pass all 4 DEF01 criteria (PRED-1 REE Chokepoint, PRED-2 NATO Cohesion, PRED-4 Spain Pivot), exceeding the ≥2 threshold for PASS. PRED-3 fails observability due to a causal c", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T21:41:20.319188+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T21:54:46.714294+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.253, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: Three of four formal predictions (PRED-1, PRED-2, PRED-3) pass all 4 DEF01 criteria: binary outcomes with quantified thresholds, specific temporal deadlines, observable via named public sources (MOFCO", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T21:54:46.776227+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T22:06:47.128850+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2572, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: 3 of 4 visible formal predictions pass all 4 DEF01 criteria (≥2 required for PASS). PRED-1 (REE restrictions, Oct 2027, 65%) and PRED-2 (NATO fracture, May 2027, 55%) are clean passes. PRED-4 (Spain p", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T22:06:47.194302+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T22:13:10.951785+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2543, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: All 4 formal predictions in Section VII pass all 4 DEF01 criteria (binary, temporal, observable, actionable). Predictions 1 and 2 are conditional but conditions are themselves binary/observable, and t", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T22:13:11.024802+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T22:31:28.589775+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2547, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: All 4 visible formal predictions in Section VII pass all DEF01 criteria (binary, temporal, observable, actionable). Three predictions carry calibrated probabilities (55%, 65%, 70%); Prediction 4 has a", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-13T22:31:28.650834+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}, {"ts": "2026-05-14T21:44:48.272547+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "l3", "model": "g1+g3+g11 (claude-sonnet-4-6)", "aggregate_verdict": "warn", "cost_usd": 0.2505, "cached_read_tokens": 0, "blockers": [], "warnings": [{"gate": "G11", "claim": "[predictions falsifiability]", "reason": "PASS: Three of four formal predictions pass all 4 DEF01 criteria (≥2 required for PASS). Prediction 1 (REE restrictions by Oct 2027) and Prediction 4 (Spain pivot within 24 months) are clean 4/4 passes. Pre", "confidence": 0.87}], "force_override": false}, {"ts": "2026-05-14T21:44:48.342974+00:00", "brief_id": "SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html", "layer": "summary", "failed_layer": null, "l3_verdict": "warn", "l4_active": false, "l4_verdict": null, "outcome": "promoted", "force_override": true}], "count": 30, "total_in_ledger": 210, "source": "data/judge_verdicts.jsonl"}