{"path": "data/predictions.yaml", "filename": "predictions.yaml", "size_bytes": 65092, "ext": ".yaml", "content": "# Shadow Dynamics + Clave — Formal Predictions Ledger\n#\n# Tracker: PREDICTIONS-PAGE-01 (BACKLOG.md)\n# Spec: docs/WORLD_CLASS_VISION.md §3 Fase 2\n# Page: /predictions (rendered by scripts/generate-predictions-page.py — pending)\n#\n# Invariantes:\n# - Append-only — predictions added when published, never edited retroactively\n# except `outcome` + `brier_contribution` at resolution time.\n# - Backfill exception: predictions embedded in briefs published BEFORE this\n# ledger went operational (2026-04-30) may be added retroactively. Backfill\n# convention: `published_date` = original brief publication date,\n# `created_date` = backfill date, `notes:` field documents that the entry is\n# a pre-policy backfill. After 2026-04-30, append-only is strict — no further\n# backfills. Confidence calibrated for long-term track-record authority\n# (heterogeneous 60-80% range preferred over uniform 85-95%; cross-ref memory\n# `feedback_predictions_calibration_over_bravado.md`). First backfill batch\n# 2026-05-02: PRED-20260427-001..004 (4 predictions from Spain Blackout brief).\n# - confidence_pct: 55-95 only. Never 50 (no signal) or 100 (no uncertainty).\n# - falsifiable_by_date: ISO 8601, future date at time of publication.\n# - observable_condition: must be specific enough that a third party can verify.\n# - brief_source: filename in /briefs/ (live) — must exist when prediction\n# added; archived briefs preserve the prediction history.\n# - id format: PRED-YYYYMMDD-NNN where NNN is sequential within day.\n#\n# Schema (each entry under `predictions:`):\n# - id: PRED-20260501-001\n# brand: shadow-dynamics | clave\n# statement: \"\"\n# confidence_pct: 65 # integer 55-95\n# confidence_label: likely # lean | likely | strongly_likely | high_confidence\n# falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-12-31\"\n# observable_condition: \"\"\n# brief_source: \"SD_20260501_AI_Economy.html\"\n# published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n# outcome: null # null | true | false | indeterminate\n# resolved_date: null # ISO date when outcome set\n# resolution_source: null # how outcome was verified\n# brier_contribution: null # computed at resolution: (predicted_prob - actual)^2\n# notes: null # optional: nuance, partial verification, etc.\n# featured_priority: null # optional 1|2|3 (Tier B B1 #1 / consolidated #1):\n# # operator-curated rank for \"3 most-consequential\n# # calls\" hero on /predictions. 1=top of three.\n# # When zero predictions are marked, the page falls\n# # back to auto-pick (sub-deadline first, then\n# # highest confidence_pct, then earliest\n# # falsifiable_by_date, with one-per-topic spread).\n# # Re-evaluate after each brief publish.\n# resolution_insight: null # optional: post-resolution editor's note\n# # (Tier B B1 #2 / consolidated #4). Surfaces in\n# # the resolution-narrative card on /predictions.\n#\n# cluster_id: null # optional: PRED-YYYYMMDD-NNN cluster identifier\n# # from BRIER-PREVENTIVE-MEASURES-01 audit §7\n# # independence cluster map. Predictions that\n# # share a structural upstream dependency carry\n# # the same cluster_id; structurally independent\n# # predictions (singletons) omit this field or\n# # set it to null. 5 clusters identified\n# # 2026-05-12: cluster-1-china-us-trade-tactical,\n# # cluster-2-eu-regulatory-inertia-cosco,\n# # cluster-3-spain-coalition-survival,\n# # cluster-4-us-iran-kinetic-conditional,\n# # cluster-5-hyperscaler-ai-capex.\n#\n# resolution_rationale: null # optional: 1-3 sentences at resolution time\n# # explaining how operator interpreted the\n# # resolution criteria + observed outcome.\n# # Captures the resolution-decision rationale\n# # for transparency surface; surfaced on\n# # /predictions page when populated. Added\n# # 2026-05-12 PM per\n# # FORECASTING-DISCIPLINE-LESSONS-2026-05-12-01\n# # sub-item 2 (Metaculus dispute-log analog).\n# # Default null pre-resolution; populated when\n# # outcome is set.\n#\n# resolution_dissent: null # optional: dict {claude: \"\",\n# # operator: \"\"} when Claude-Code-emitted\n# # resolution interpretation differed from\n# # operator's final call. Captures the\n# # disagreement that would otherwise be lost.\n# # Most resolutions will leave this null (no\n# # disagreement). When populated, indicates a\n# # resolution-criteria-precision issue worth\n# # feeding back to E2 prompt-rule discipline.\n\n# Brier score interpretation (for /predictions page):\n# < 0.10 = excellent calibration\n# < 0.15 = decent\n# < 0.25 = better than random (chance baseline = 0.25 at 50% confidence)\n# ≥ 0.25 = poor — investigate\n#\n# First prediction expected: AI & Economy brief (publish viernes 2026-05-01).\n# Second batch: Brief 5 Defensa Europea (semana 2 mayo) onwards.\npredictions:\n - id: PRED-20260501-001\n cluster_id: cluster-5-hyperscaler-ai-capex\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 60-70% probability that the aggregate Q2 2026 capital expenditure of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon — as reported in the \"Purchases of property and equipment\" line (Cash Flow from Investing Activities) of their respective Q2 2026 10-Q filings issued by 2026-08-15 — will reach or exceed $150 billion combined, representing at least 2.1× the prior-year Q2 2025 comparison-period figure disclosed in those same filings.\n confidence_pct: 65\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-08-15\"\n observable_condition: |\n Sum of the \"Purchases of property and equipment\" line item (Cash Flow from Investing Activities, GAAP-standard) reported in the Q2 2026 10-Q filings of Microsoft (CIK 0000789019), Alphabet (CIK 0001652044), Meta Platforms (CIK 0001326801), and Amazon (CIK 0001018724) on SEC EDGAR. All four 10-Qs are expected to be filed by 2026-08-15. Resolution: aggregate sum ≥ $150 billion AND aggregate ≥ 2.1× the prior-year Q2 2025 comparison-period figure (sourced from the same documents' comparison columns) → outcome=true; otherwise → outcome=false.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260425_1431_AI_Economy.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-30\"\n created_date: \"2026-04-29\"\n\n # ── Backfill 2026-05-02: AI Economy brief, published 2026-04-25 ──────────\n # Pre-policy backfill: 2 predictions added to brief HTML in Checkpoint 3b\n # (commit pending) as part of §FORMAL PREDICTIONS section. PRED-20260501-001\n # remains the lone prospective entry for this brief; PRED-20260425-001 and\n # PRED-20260425-002 are post-publication formalisations of falsifiable claims\n # implicit in the brief's Three Traps and structural displacement mechanism.\n # Confidence 80/65 calibrated for heterogeneity across domains (G7 legislative\n # inertia / hyperscaler capex trajectory) per\n # feedback_predictions_calibration_over_bravado. Numbered PRED-20260425-NNN\n # to distinguish from prospective PRED-20260501-001 per operator decision.\n\n - id: PRED-20260425-001\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 80% probability that no G7 member legislates an AI capital\n tax, robot tax, or productivity dividend mechanism by 2026-12-31 — i.e.,\n no statutory instrument with such effect reaches gazette publication in\n any G7 member state (US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada)\n before that date.\n confidence_pct: 80\n confidence_label: strongly_likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n Search of national legislative databases (UK Parliament, US Congress,\n Bundestag, Assemblée Nationale, Diet, Parliament of Canada, Parlamento\n Italiano) for any enacted bill with effect of taxing AI capital\n accumulation, robot capital, or instituting a productivity dividend\n mechanism. Cross-referenced against IMF Fiscal Monitor October 2026.\n Resolution sources: parliament.uk + congress.gov + bundestag.de +\n assemblee-nationale.fr + sangiin.go.jp/shugiin.go.jp + parl.ca +\n parlamento.it + imf.org Fiscal Monitor.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260425_1431_AI_Economy.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-25\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — embedded in §FORMAL PREDICTIONS of the brief HTML via\n Checkpoint 3b. Confidence 80 reflects (a) the brief's own Three Traps\n thesis that G7 fiscal architecture is structurally locked to labor\n taxation (70-85% revenue dependency per fn-9), (b) zero G7 member has\n legislated such a mechanism as of Q2 2026 per IMF April 2026 WEO, and\n (c) 8-month residual window with no advanced legislative drafting in\n any G7 jurisdiction. Not 90 to respect tail risk of Italian or French\n coalition acting unilaterally under populist pressure (Signal 3 of the\n brief).\n\n - id: PRED-20260425-002\n cluster_id: cluster-5-hyperscaler-ai-capex\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 65% probability that the combined FY2026 AI capital\n expenditure of the top-5 hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta,\n Amazon, Oracle) reaches $720 billion or more in 2026, as reported in\n their respective FY2026 10-K filings disclosed in early 2027.\n confidence_pct: 65\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-03-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n Aggregate of \"Purchases of property and equipment\" line item (Cash Flow\n from Investing Activities, GAAP-standard) reported in the FY2026 10-K\n filings of Microsoft (CIK 0000789019), Alphabet (CIK 0001652044), Meta\n Platforms (CIK 0001326801), Amazon (CIK 0001018724), and Oracle\n (CIK 0001341439) on SEC EDGAR. Resolution: aggregate sum ≥ $720 billion\n → outcome=true; otherwise → outcome=false. Resolution source:\n sec.gov/edgar.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260425_1431_AI_Economy.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-25\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry. Domain-correlated with PRED-20260501-001 (Q2 2026\n hyperscaler capex) but addresses full FY2026 with Oracle included.\n Confidence 65 reflects (a) hyperscaler capex guidance (Microsoft ≈$190B,\n Amazon ≈$200B, Alphabet $175-185B, Meta $115-135B, Oracle ≈$50B) sums\n to $730-790B at midpoint per fn-1, comfortably above $720B threshold,\n against (b) Q4 2026 guidance revision risk if AI demand decelerates or\n if Taiwan compute shock (Scenario C, 20% in brief) materializes\n mid-year, and (c) accounting noise around capex vs operating expense\n classification at the margins. Closest to coin-flip of the 3 — directional\n bet on hyperscaler trajectory within wider uncertainty band.\n\n # ── Backfill 2026-05-02: Spain Blackout brief, published 2026-04-27 ──────\n # Pre-policy backfill: predictions ledger went live 2026-04-30 (PRED-20260501-001\n # was the first prospective entry). The 4 predictions below were embedded in\n # §10 TRACK RECORD of SD_20260427_0656_Spain_Blackout.html and are added\n # retroactively to preserve the brief's stated falsifiability contract.\n # Confidence values (70/80/60/65) calibrated for long-term track-record\n # authority — heterogeneous across domains (political volatility vs HVDC\n # construction calendar vs regulatory action). Cross-ref EDITORIAL-LEGAL-05\n # audit (reports/editorial-legal-05_briefs-1-3-audit_2026-05-02.md).\n\n - id: PRED-20260427-001\n cluster_id: cluster-3-spain-coalition-survival\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 70% probability that the Spanish parliamentary legislation\n identified in §3 of the Iberian Blackout brief (RDL 7/2025 successor\n framework + OP 7.4 codification) will NOT pass parliament in its original\n form before 2026-10-31. Falsification: any successor legislation reaches\n Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE) with substantively unchanged technical\n provisions (PO 7.4 thresholds + grid reform package) before that date.\n confidence_pct: 70\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n BOE search for successor regulation to RDL 7/2025 with PO 7.4 + grid\n reform technical content, published before 2026-10-31. Resolution source:\n boe.es official gazette.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260427_0656_Spain_Blackout.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-27\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — original brief listed this as falsifiable but was\n published before predictions.yaml ledger was operational. Confidence 70\n reflects coalition fragmentation (PP+VOX+Podemos+BNG voted against\n original) plus 6-month window insufficient for substantive consensus.\n\n - id: PRED-20260427-002\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 80% probability that the Bay of Biscay submarine\n interconnector (Spain-France HVDC, under construction since 2023) will\n NOT enter commercial operation before 2028-07-01.\n confidence_pct: 80\n confidence_label: strongly_likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2028-07-01\"\n observable_condition: |\n ENTSO-E commissioning announcement OR Red Eléctrica de España (REE)\n grid integration notice for Bay of Biscay interconnector. Resolution\n source: ENTSO-E TYNDP register + REE press releases.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260427_0656_Spain_Blackout.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-27\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — ENTSO-E calendar already states H2 2028 in-service.\n Confidence 80 reflects HVDC submarine projects' historical late-delivery\n pattern; not 90 to respect post-blackout political fast-tracking risk.\n\n - id: PRED-20260427-003\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 60% probability that Red Eléctrica de España (REE) will NOT\n publish formal compliance confirmation with PO 7.4 (CNMC operating\n procedure 7.4 on synchronous reserve) before 2026-09-30.\n confidence_pct: 60\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-09-30\"\n observable_condition: |\n Absence of REE compliance report or CNMC verification statement that\n PO 7.4 thresholds are met operationally before 2026-09-30. Resolution\n source: ree.es / cnmc.es official publications + boe.es.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260427_0656_Spain_Blackout.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-27\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry. Confidence 60 reflects genuine uncertainty: CNMC rejected\n tightening Oct 2025 (regulatory capture thesis) but post-blackout\n political pressure may drive earlier compliance. Closest to coin-flip of\n the 4 — directional bet on the brief's regulatory-capture thesis.\n\n - id: PRED-20260427-004\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 65% probability that Sánchez's government will NOT formalize\n the Almaraz nuclear extension (beyond the current decommissioning\n schedule) before 2026-12-31.\n confidence_pct: 65\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n Official decision by Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica formalizing\n Almaraz operating-license extension beyond the currently scheduled\n 2027-2028 decommissioning window. Resolution source: BOE + Ministerio\n MITECO press releases + Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN) license\n modifications.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260427_0656_Spain_Blackout.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-27\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry. CNAT extension request 30 oct 2025 + post-blackout REE\n pressure are real. Confidence 65 reflects coalition arithmetic (Sumar\n ideologically anti-nuclear) plus 8-month window — direction clear,\n timing not assured.\n\n # ── Backfill 2026-05-02: Spain Geopolitics brief, published 2026-04-23 ──\n # Pre-policy backfill: 3 predictions added to brief HTML in Checkpoint 1b\n # (commit c99a87b) as a §FORMAL PREDICTIONS section. Backfilled here to keep\n # predictions ledger as canonical source. Confidence 75/70/65 calibrated for\n # heterogeneity across domains (parliamentary politics / EU regulatory action\n # / bilateral defense agreements) per feedback_predictions_calibration_over_bravado.\n\n - id: PRED-20260423-001\n cluster_id: cluster-3-spain-coalition-survival\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 75% probability that Spain refuses the NATO 5% GDP defense\n target through Q4 2026. Falsification: formal Spanish government adoption\n of the Hague 5% GDP defense target via BOE publication or La Moncloa\n announcement before 2026-12-31, beyond the existing 2.1% NATO commitment\n of 22 June 2025.\n confidence_pct: 75\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n No publication in Boletín Oficial del Estado (boe.es) or La Moncloa\n (lamoncloa.gob.es) announcing 5% GDP defense-target adoption beyond the\n 2.1% NATO commitment of 2025-06-22 before 2026-12-31. Resolution source:\n boe.es official gazette + lamoncloa.gob.es press releases.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260423_2019_Spain.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-23\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — embedded in §FORMAL PREDICTIONS of the brief HTML via\n Checkpoint 1b (commit c99a87b). Confidence 75 reflects coalition\n arithmetic (Sumar+ERC+Bildu veto on defense increases) plus Sánchez's\n public NATO Hague Summit refusal already on record; not 85 to respect\n cabinet-reshuffle / coalition-collapse risk over a 7-month window.\n\n - id: PRED-20260423-002\n cluster_id: cluster-2-eu-regulatory-inertia-cosco\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 70% probability that no formal EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation\n Phase II investigation against COSCO terminal stakes in Spain\n (Valencia 51% / Bilbao 40%) is opened by Q2 2027. Falsification:\n European Commission DG COMP opening of a Phase II investigation under\n Regulation 2022/2560 (FSR) targeting COSCO Spanish terminal operations,\n published in the EU Official Journal before 2027-06-30.\n confidence_pct: 70\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-06-30\"\n observable_condition: |\n EUR-Lex search for any Phase II FSR proceeding under Regulation 2022/2560\n against Noatum / CSP Spain terminal operations. Resolution source:\n eur-lex.europa.eu Official Journal + EC DG COMP press releases.\n Resolves true if no such proceeding is published before 2027-06-30.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260423_2019_Spain.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-23\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry. Confidence 70 reflects FSR enforcement track record\n (initiated cases concentrated on greenfield procurement, not\n brownfield SOE-acquired stakes), against political pressure post Trump\n tariff threat that may push Brussels to act symbolically before 2027\n election cycle.\n\n - id: PRED-20260423-003\n cluster_id: cluster-3-spain-coalition-survival\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 65% probability that U.S. military bases at Rota and Morón\n remain operational under the existing 1988 framework agreement through\n Q4 2026 — i.e. no formal closure or suspension act by either party.\n Falsification: (i) Pentagon official announcement of closure or\n suspension at Rota or Morón, OR (ii) Spanish government formal closure\n notice on the 1988 Defense Cooperation Agreement, before 2026-12-31.\n confidence_pct: 65\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n Operational status verifiable via DoD basing reports (defense.gov) and\n Spanish Ministerio de Defensa press releases. Resolves true if both\n bases remain operational through 2026-12-31 with no formal closure or\n suspension act published in Boletín Oficial del Estado (boe.es) or\n announced by the Pentagon. Resolution source: defense.gov + defensa.gob.es\n + boe.es.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260423_2019_Spain.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-23\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry. Closest to coin-flip of the 3 (post-airspace-closure\n escalation tracks toward base disruption). Confidence 65 reflects high\n cost-of-exit on both sides (Sixth Fleet logistics + Spanish economic\n dependence on base activity) against the Trump-Sánchez diplomatic spiral\n already producing March 2026 airspace closure. Direction unclear; floor\n not below 60.\n\n # ── Backfill 2026-05-02: COSCO European Ports brief, published 2026-04-24 ──\n # Pre-policy backfill: 3 predictions added to brief HTML in Checkpoint 2b\n # (commit 530aee9) as a §FORMAL PREDICTIONS section. Backfilled here to keep\n # predictions ledger as canonical source. Confidence 70/80/60 calibrated for\n # heterogeneity across domains (FSR enforcement / regulatory continuity /\n # commercial throughput recovery) per feedback_predictions_calibration_over_bravado.\n\n - id: PRED-20260424-001\n cluster_id: cluster-2-eu-regulatory-inertia-cosco\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 70% probability that no European Commission Foreign Subsidies\n Regulation Phase II investigation publicly naming COSCO Shipping Ports\n or Terminal Investment Limited is published in the EU Official Journal\n before 2026-12-31. Falsification: any EU OJ notice of a Phase II FSR\n proceeding under Regulation 2022/2560 against COSCO Shipping Ports or\n Terminal Investment Limited entities, before 2026-12-31.\n confidence_pct: 70\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n EUR-Lex search of the EU Official Journal for any Phase II FSR\n proceeding under Regulation 2022/2560 naming COSCO Shipping Ports or\n Terminal Investment Limited. Resolution source: eur-lex.europa.eu\n Official Journal + EC DG COMP press releases. Resolves true if no such\n notice appears before 2026-12-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260424_0635_COSCO_Ports.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-24\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — embedded in §FORMAL PREDICTIONS of the brief HTML via\n Checkpoint 2b (commit 530aee9). Confidence 70 reflects FSR enforcement\n track record to date (no Phase II actions opened against vested\n brownfield SOE-acquired infrastructure stakes since 2023 entry into\n force) plus member-state political blocking (Greek/Spanish/Belgian\n political resistance documented in brief Coalition Trap); not 80 to\n respect possibility of Belgian De Wever government cooperating with EC\n escalation at Zeebrugge as the regulatory test case.\n\n - id: PRED-20260424-002\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 80% probability that COSCO retains operational control of at\n least 50% of the Zeebrugge container terminal through Q4 2027 — i.e. no\n forced or negotiated divestment reduces COSCO's effective stake below\n the 50% control threshold by 2027-12-31.\n confidence_pct: 80\n confidence_label: strongly_likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n CSP Terminals Belgium ownership filings and Belgian Crossroads Bank for\n Enterprises (KBO/BCE) registry. Resolution source: kbopub.economie.fgov.be\n + Belgian Council of State decisions (raadvst-consetat.be) + EC DG COMP\n enforcement notices. Resolves true if COSCO's stake remains at or above\n 50% through 2027-12-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260424_0635_COSCO_Ports.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-24\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry. Confidence 80 reflects (a) 22-month window from Q1 2026\n (any FSR Phase II + ECJ litigation + ownership transition) is shorter\n than the 18-24 month litigation cycle the brief itself models in\n Scenario B, (b) commercial counter-acquisition by DP World/Eurogate at\n regulatory-determined valuation requires capital that European\n operators do not currently command per Three Traps Economic Trap, and\n (c) De Wever government has not yet articulated formal intent to push\n divestment. Not 90 to respect Scenario B (30%) tail risk.\n\n - id: PRED-20260424-003\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 60% probability that Piraeus annual container throughput\n recovers to at least 5.3 million TEU in 2026, recovering from the\n ~5.1M TEU 2023 reading and the ~4.7M TEU 2024 trough.\n confidence_pct: 60\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-03-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n COSCO Shipping Ports (1199.HK) FY2026 annual results disclosure\n (expected by March 2027) reporting Piraeus full-year throughput, plus\n Piraeus Port Authority S.A. (PPA, ATHEX: PPA) regulatory filings.\n Resolution source: en.ports.coscoshipping.com (interim and annual\n results) + olp.gr (PPA investor information) + ATHEX corporate\n announcements. Resolves true if Piraeus 2026 reported throughput is\n ≥ 5.3M TEU.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260424_0635_COSCO_Ports.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-24\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-02\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry. Closest to coin-flip of the 3 (commercial throughput\n recovery is the most contingent on macro conditions). Confidence 60\n reflects the brief's own Signal 4 acknowledgement that COSCO Shipping\n Ports H1 2025 disclosures point to year-on-year compression in\n container shipping segment margins, plus IMF April 2026 WEO China GDP\n 4.4% downgrade; recovery requires both Mediterranean trade volume\n growth and Piraeus operational discipline. Direction unclear; floor\n not below 55.\n\n # ── Backfill 2026-05-03: European Defense brief, published 2026-05-01 ──\n # Post-policy backfill: 4 predictions added to brief HTML §Section VII at\n # publish time (2026-05-01) but ledger entries created 2026-05-03 to close\n # def01_formal_predictions_present runner gap. Per RETROFIT_PLAN_EUROPEAN_\n # DEFENSE.md §2 + §5 (operator-approved 2026-05-02). Append-only policy\n # preserved going forward — no further backfills after this batch.\n # Confidence calibrated heterogeneous 55-70% per\n # feedback_predictions_calibration_over_bravado (Brief 5 body §Sec VII\n # uses 65/55/70/45 range; PRED-005 inverted to schema-compliant 55%\n # negative framing — Brier-equivalent to body's 45% affirmative).\n\n - id: PRED-20260501-002\n cluster_id: cluster-1-china-us-trade-tactical\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 65% probability that China imposes targeted REE export\n restrictions calibrated to slow European defence-industrial production\n — most likely on dysprosium and terbium critical for missile/drone\n motor magnets — before 2027-10-31, framed as \"strategic internal\n resource management\" rather than retaliation.\n confidence_pct: 65\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n Chinese MOFCOM announcement of new export licensing/quota controls on\n REE elements (specifically dysprosium [Dy], terbium [Tb], or\n rare-earth permanent magnets) published in the official Gazette OR\n Reuters/Bloomberg report citing MOFCOM source. Trigger conditions:\n European arms deliveries to Taiwan-adjacent theatres OR formal EU FSR\n designation of Chinese defence contractors. Resolution sources:\n english.mofcom.gov.cn announcements + China customs export data via\n Argus / Adamas Intelligence trade trackers.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-03\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — embedded in §Sec VII Predicción 1 of brief HTML at\n publish 2026-05-01. Confidence 65 reflects (a) China's April 2025\n MOFCOM Announcement 18/2025 on 7 critical elements established the\n mechanism is operational, (b) IEA WEO 2025 documents ~85% Chinese\n refining dominance giving structural leverage, (c) 18-month window\n captures expected ramp of European arms-to-Taiwan signals during\n 2026-2027 cycle. Not 75 to respect possibility China prioritises\n bilateral EU trade negotiation incentives over escalation.\n\n - id: PRED-20260501-003\n cluster_id: cluster-4-us-iran-kinetic-conditional\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 55% probability that, conditional on US-Iran ceasefire\n collapse and US resumption of kinetic operations against Iran before\n 2027-05-01, at least 4 additional European NATO members (beyond\n Spain) will formally deny basing/overflight rights, triggering a\n publicly acknowledged alliance fracture.\n confidence_pct: 55\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-05-01\"\n observable_condition: |\n Public official statements from at least 4 distinct European NATO\n governments (beyond Spain) denying US basing rights or overflight\n authorisation for offensive operations against Iran. Resolution\n sources: Foreign Ministry press releases + Defense Ministry\n statements (national gov.* domains) + AP/Reuters/AFP reporting.\n Conditional on US-Iran ceasefire collapse before 2027-05-01; if\n ceasefire holds throughout window, prediction resolves indeterminate\n (records as null outcome with 'condition not triggered' note).\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-03\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — embedded in §Sec VII Predicción 2 of brief HTML at\n publish 2026-05-01. Confidence 55 reflects (a) Spain precedent\n established refusal is politically survivable + legally defensible,\n (b) 4 additional members is non-trivial threshold (not 1-2 marginal\n cases), (c) Iran ceasefire collapse is itself uncertain. Conditional\n prediction; if condition not triggered, resolves indeterminate.\n Calibrated near coin-flip floor reflecting compound uncertainty.\n\n - id: PRED-20260501-004\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 70% probability that the European Defence Agency (EDA)\n quarterly ammunition output report published before 2027-01-15\n documents European production capacity at below 50% of wartime\n requirements despite the 14% spending growth, prompting a Council of\n the European Union extraordinary session on European Defence\n Industrial Strategy.\n confidence_pct: 70\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-01-15\"\n observable_condition: |\n EDA Q4 2026 quarterly ammunition output report (published Q1 2027)\n documents production capacity at <50% of wartime requirements per\n EDA's own benchmark. Resolution sources: eda.europa.eu publications\n + Council of the European Union meeting calendar\n (consilium.europa.eu) for extraordinary session announcement on\n European Defence Industrial Strategy.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-03\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — embedded in §Sec VII Predicción 3 of brief HTML at\n publish 2026-05-01. Confidence 70 reflects (a) EDA's own 2024 data\n established the ~40% baseline, (b) 3-7 year facility buildout\n timeline (per brief §2.1) makes single-year capacity doubling\n structurally implausible, (c) extraordinary Council session is\n conditional on the EDA report being politically salient. Highest of\n 4 backfill predictions because the underlying EDA capacity reality\n is well-documented; uncertainty is in the political response timing.\n\n - id: PRED-20260501-005\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 55% probability that Spain does NOT formalise a trilateral\n security framework with France and Germany outside the NATO\n architecture (i.e., a \"Coalition of the Willing\" European defence\n pact not requiring US participation) before 2028-05-01. Brier-\n equivalent restatement of brief §Sec VII Predicción 4 affirmative\n framing (\"Spain will pivot\") at 45% probability — schema compliance\n requires confidence ≥55 (no null-signal entries at 50).\n confidence_pct: 55\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2028-05-01\"\n observable_condition: |\n Public announcement (joint communiqué or treaty signature) of a\n formal Spain-France-Germany trilateral defence framework with\n explicit clause separating from NATO Article 5 dependency on US.\n Resolution sources: La Moncloa (lamoncloa.gob.es) + Élysée\n (elysee.fr) + Bundeskanzleramt (bundeskanzler.de) press releases +\n AP/Reuters/AFP coverage. Resolves true (Spain does NOT pivot) if no\n such framework is announced before 2028-05-01; resolves false if\n announced. Note: existing Treaty of Aachen (2019, France-Germany)\n and Treaty of Quirinal (2021, France-Italy) are bilateral; Spain\n trilateral would be net-new and structurally distinct.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-03\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry — embedded in §Sec VII Predicción 4 of brief HTML at\n publish 2026-05-01 with affirmative 45% probability framing.\n Inverted to negative 55% probability framing for ledger entry to\n satisfy schema constraint (confidence_pct: 55-95 only; 50 disallowed\n as no-signal). Brier-equivalent — if outcome is \"Spain pivots\"\n (false in negative framing, true in affirmative), Brier contribution\n is identical (0.55^2 vs 0.45^2 cross-checks). Operator approved\n backfill convention (RETROFIT_PLAN_EUROPEAN_DEFENSE.md §2 final\n paragraph). 24-month window (May 2026 → May 2028) reflects brief's\n \"Within 24 months\" stated horizon.\n # ── Backfill 2026-05-07: D-QA-12 = Opcion A reopen (predictions = primary moat) ──\n # The 2026-05-03 European Defense backfill comment said \"no further backfills\n # after this batch\". That commitment was made before D-QA-12 was decided\n # 2026-05-06. D-QA-12 = Opcion A reopened the question by raising the goal to\n # >=30 ledger entries and explicitly authorizing PREDICTIONS-RETROACTIVE-EXTRACT-01.\n # Operator approved path 3 (curated 15-add) on 2026-05-07: prior 9 candidates\n # from reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md (2026-05-04) minus #3\n # (Piraeus Phase III, self-flagged weakest) + 8 sub-deadline candidates from\n # reports/predictions-retroactive-extraction-2026-05-07.md (S1-S8) minus S3\n # (HHLA, domain-correlated with COSCO regulatory trio). Calibration band 60-85\n # heterogeneous per feedback_predictions_calibration_over_bravado. 7 of 15 are\n # sub-deadline (<=2026-10-31), addressing D-QA-22 floor #2. Future batches\n # require explicit operator approval per batch.\n\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-001\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 65% probability that Morocco will NOT formally modify the\n 2022 bilateral migration-and-energy cooperation framework with Spain\n before 2026-12-31. Falsification: any public modification or Rabat-\n Algiers rapprochement announcement that supersedes the 2022 framework\n before that date.\n confidence_pct: 65\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n MAEC (Spain Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores) press releases\n + Maroc.ma official communiques + AP/Reuters/AFP reporting.\n Resolves true if no public modification or Rabat-Algiers\n rapprochement announcement is made by 2026-12-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260423_2019_Spain.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-23\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md candidate #1\n (Spain brief Section 7 Signal 3 Morocco Leverage Activation key\n threshold). Confidence 65 reflects (a) Morocco's status-quo bias\n as long as Western Sahara recognition is in place, balanced by\n (b) ~8-month window short for new bilateral instruments.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-002\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 75% probability that NATO will NOT invoke a formal\n Article 4 consultation with Indo-Pacific port-access language in\n the communique before 2027-12-31. Falsification: any NATO Article\n 4 consultation explicitly addressing European port access in\n response to Indo-Pacific events before that date.\n confidence_pct: 75\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n NATO Council communique text via nato.int + member-state\n parliamentary defence committee disclosures. Resolves true if\n no Article 4 consultation explicitly addressing European port\n access is initiated by 2027-12-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260424_0635_COSCO_Ports.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-24\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md candidate #2\n (COSCO brief Section 7 Signal 2 Taiwan Strait Contingency).\n Confidence 75 reflects (a) Article 4 invocations historically\n rare (~8 invocations 1949-2024), (b) European reluctance to\n formalise China-port linkage publicly, against (c) Trump\n administration pressure to force the question.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-003\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 70% probability that German federal income tax revenue\n (Lohnsteuer + Einkommensteuer combined) will NOT post a\n year-on-year contraction of >=3% in Q3 2026 (July-September)\n attributed to structural labor displacement rather than cyclical\n recession. Falsification: BMF Q3 2026 monthly tax revenue report\n (release Oct-Nov 2026) shows wage+income tax aggregate y-o-y\n change <= -3% AND BMF commentary attributes the contraction to\n structural labor-displacement factors rather than cyclical drift.\n confidence_pct: 70\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n Bundesministerium der Finanzen monthly tax revenue reports\n (bundesfinanzministerium.de) Q3 2026 release. Resolves true if\n Q3 2026 wage+income tax aggregate y-o-y change > -3% OR\n contraction is attributed to cyclical factors in BMF commentary.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260425_1431_AI_Economy.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-25\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md candidate #4\n (AI Economy brief Section 7 Signal 1 ALERT German Q3 2026 fiscal\n data). Distinct from PRED-20260425-001 (G7 AI-tax legislation\n absent) -- this tracks revenue-side reality, not legislative\n response. Confidence 70 reflects (a) German labor market still\n tight at brief publish, (b) AI displacement effects historically\n lag adoption 18-36mo, against (c) stagnant 0.3-0.5% growth\n narrowing buffer.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-004\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 65% probability that no party polling above 25% in any\n G7 member state (US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada)\n will formally adopt an AI displacement tax or automation reversal\n as a manifesto/platform commitment before 2027-09-30.\n Falsification: documented manifesto commitment in an election\n cycle 2026-Q3 2027 by a party meeting the polling threshold.\n confidence_pct: 65\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-09-30\"\n observable_condition: |\n National polling aggregators (Politico Europe Poll-of-Polls +\n Wahlrecht.de + IFOP + RealClearPolitics + Angus Reid + NHK)\n cross-referenced with party manifestos. Resolves true if no\n qualifying manifesto commitment is documented by 2027-09-30.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260425_1431_AI_Economy.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-25\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md candidate #5\n (AI Economy brief Section 7 Signal 3 Democratic Legitimacy\n Fracture key threshold). Distinct from PRED-20260425-001 (G7\n legislative gazette publication) -- this tracks the upstream\n political-platform stage, not enacted statute. Confidence 65\n reflects (a) AfD/Le Pen/M5S willingness to instrumentalise AI\n grievance, against (b) explicit displacement-tax framing absent\n from current platforms.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-005\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 75% probability that no documented AI system failure\n causing quantifiable economic harm above $10 billion attributed\n to a named frontier model (Anthropic Claude, OpenAI GPT, Google\n Gemini, xAI Grok, Meta Llama, DeepSeek) will trigger a US\n Congressional or European Parliament emergency session before\n 2027-12-31.\n confidence_pct: 75\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n US Congressional hearing schedules (congress.gov) + European\n Parliament committee agendas (europarl.europa.eu) + Reuters/\n Bloomberg coverage of named-model attribution. Resolves true if\n no qualifying event triggers a formally convened emergency\n session by 2027-12-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260425_1431_AI_Economy.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-25\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md candidate #6\n (AI Economy brief Section 7 Signal 4 Concentration Crystallization\n Event key threshold). Confidence 75 reflects (a) high $10B harm\n threshold + model-attribution requirement structurally hard to\n clear, (b) emergency sessions require explicit single-failure\n framing, against (c) 20-month window with rapid frontier\n deployment scaling.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-006\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 70% probability that the ENTSO-E 12-month implementation\n review on the 22 Iberian-blackout recommendations, when published\n in Q1 2027, will show fewer than 50% (less than 11 of 22)\n recommendations at full compliance status.\n confidence_pct: 70\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-03-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n ENTSO-E publication portal (entsoe.eu) Q1 2027 implementation\n review document, recommendation-by-recommendation compliance\n scoring. Resolves true if formal compliance count < 11/22 at\n publication cut-off.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260427_0656_Spain_Blackout.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-27\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md candidate #7\n (Blackout brief Section 7 Signal 4 European Grid Governance key\n threshold). Distinct from PRED-20260427-001 (Spanish RDL 7/2025\n successor) and PRED-20260427-003 (REE PO 7.4 compliance) -- this\n tracks the supranational ENTSO-E lens. Confidence 70 reflects\n brief Section 3 documentation that 21/22 recommendations remain\n in implementation phase.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-007\n cluster_id: cluster-4-us-iran-kinetic-conditional\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 60% probability that the US will formally introduce a\n new Foreign Military Sales (FMS) conditionality clause, basing-\n access linkage, or NATO commitment-conditional arms-supply\n restriction targeting at least one European NATO member before\n 2027-12-31. Falsification: any FMS letter, presidential\n determination, or congressional notification explicitly\n conditions arms supply on a European political condition (NATO\n spending compliance, Iran policy alignment, etc.).\n confidence_pct: 60\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-12-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n US State Department FMS notifications to Congress\n (state.gov/foreign-military-sales) + DoD press releases +\n AP/Reuters coverage of conditionality language. Resolves true if\n qualifying conditionality instrument issued before 2027-12-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md candidate #8\n (Defense brief Section VI Risk 2 US Reliability Collapse).\n Distinct from PRED-20260501-003 (>=4 NATO members deny basing\n for Iran ops) -- this captures the inverse direction (US\n imposing conditionality, not Europe withholding access).\n Confidence 60 reflects Trump documented use of trade conditionality\n as leverage, against FMS process institutional inertia.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-008\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 65% probability that European NATO aggregate 155mm\n shell production will NOT exceed 2.5 million rounds/year\n (annualised steady-state) before 2027-06-30, falling short of\n the EU/EDA 2 million/year-by-end-2025 target on a sustained\n basis. Falsification: EDA report or company disclosure\n documents annualised 155mm output >= 2.5M rounds before\n 2027-06-30.\n confidence_pct: 65\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2027-06-30\"\n observable_condition: |\n EDA quarterly ammunition output reports (eda.europa.eu) +\n Rheinmetall + Nammo + KNDS production capacity disclosures.\n Resolves true if no EDA report or company disclosure documents\n annualised 155mm output >= 2.5M rounds before 2027-06-30.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-proposals.md candidate #9\n (Defense brief Section II.1 + VI Risk 4 ammunition gap).\n Domain-correlated with PRED-20260501-004 (EDA Q4 2026 <50% of\n wartime requirements) but mechanistically distinct: PRED-004 is\n single-report political-trigger; this is quantitative production-\n volume over longer horizon.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-009\n cluster_id: cluster-3-spain-coalition-survival\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 60% probability that the Spanish airspace closure to\n US military aircraft (announced 2026-03-30) will NOT be formally\n rescinded before 2026-10-31. Falsification: any Moncloa or MAEC\n press release, BOE notice, or Pentagon overflight-resumption\n confirmation reverting the closure before 2026-10-31. Note: the\n closure framing is conditional on the Iran war; a US-Iran\n ceasefire that makes overflights moot does not trigger formal\n rescission unless Madrid issues an explicit reversal.\n confidence_pct: 60\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n lamoncloa.gob.es + exteriores.gob.es + defense.gov +\n AP/Reuters/AFP. Resolves true if no public reversal documented\n before 2026-10-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260423_2019_Spain.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-23\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-extraction-2026-05-07.md\n candidate S1. Sub-deadline (<=2026-10-31) candidate addressing\n D-QA-22 floor #2. Verified live 2026-05-07 per Sanchez NATO\n sidestep 2026-04-24 reporting (no public reversal news).\n Confidence 60 reflects political reversibility tension; the\n report flagged 70-75 as defensible if 'no formal rescission'\n is treated as politically asymmetric (reversal cost > moot-cost).\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-010\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 75% probability that Spain will NOT sign a new\n long-term LNG supply contract (>=10-year tenor, >=3 bcm/year)\n with any non-Algerian, non-Moroccan supplier before 2026-10-31.\n Falsification: any Enagas contract notice, MITECO press release,\n or counterparty filing announcing such a contract.\n confidence_pct: 75\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n enagas.es press releases + miteco.gob.es + EU Energy Platform\n aggregator + counterparty IR pages (Cheniere, Venture Global,\n QatarEnergy, NextDecade). Resolves true if no qualifying\n contract is signed before 2026-10-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260423_2019_Spain.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-23\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-extraction-2026-05-07.md\n candidate S2. Sub-deadline (<=2026-10-31). Confidence 75\n reflects Spain's tripartite-dependency status quo + fiscal\n constraints on counterparty premium-pricing acceptance.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-011\n cluster_id: cluster-2-eu-regulatory-inertia-cosco\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 80% probability that the Belgian federal government\n will NOT publish a formal Zeebrugge-COSCO divestment policy,\n executive order, or Council of State decision compelling COSCO\n stake reduction before 2026-10-31.\n confidence_pct: 80\n confidence_label: strongly_likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n belgium.be + raadvst-consetat.be + AP/Reuters. Resolves true\n if no qualifying instrument is published before 2026-10-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260424_0635_COSCO_Ports.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-24\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-extraction-2026-05-07.md\n candidate S4. Sub-deadline (<=2026-10-31). Distinct from\n PRED-20260424-001 (FSR Phase II vs COSCO by 2026-12-31) which\n is EU-level enforcement; this tracks Belgian-level political\n posture. De Wever government has not yet articulated formal\n intent to push divestment.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-012\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 75% probability that no PLA naval/air exercise within\n 50nm of northern Taiwan TSMC operational radius (Hsinchu/Tainan/\n Taoyuan) exceeding 72 continuous hours of declared exercise\n duration will occur before 2026-10-31.\n confidence_pct: 75\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n mnd.gov.tw daily air/naval activity reports + USINDOPACOM press\n + Reuters/Bloomberg/AP coverage. Resolves true if no qualifying\n exercise (50nm proximity AND >=72 continuous hours) documented\n before 2026-10-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260425_1431_AI_Economy.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-25\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-extraction-2026-05-07.md\n candidate S5. Sub-deadline (<=2026-10-31). Confidence 75\n reflects 72hr+ near-TSMC threshold non-trivial vs more common\n shorter incursions; AI Economy brief Section 7 Signal 2\n established this as TSMC supply chain trigger.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-013\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 85% probability that no second significant Iberian\n grid event -- defined as either ENTSO-E Significant Incident\n Classification entry OR cumulative customer impact >=1 million\n customers -- will occur on the Spanish or Portuguese transmission\n system before 2026-10-31.\n confidence_pct: 85\n confidence_label: strongly_likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n entsoe.eu Incident Classification reports + ree.es + ren.pt\n + AP/Reuters. Resolves true if no qualifying event documented\n before 2026-10-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260427_0656_Spain_Blackout.html\n published_date: \"2026-04-27\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-extraction-2026-05-07.md\n candidate S6. Sub-deadline (<=2026-10-31). Confidence 85\n reflects high prior on null event over 5-month window;\n Iberian grid significant-event base rate is genuinely low.\n One of two 85% candidates in batch (paired with calibration\n risk note in source report).\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-014\n cluster_id: cluster-1-china-us-trade-tactical\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 70% probability that the EU Critical Raw Materials\n Act Strategic Project list will NOT include any new REE-specific\n extraction or processing project located on EU member-state\n territory before 2026-10-31.\n confidence_pct: 70\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n ec.europa.eu CRMA Strategic Projects list + EUR-Lex Official\n Journal. Resolves true if no qualifying REE-specific designation\n appears before 2026-10-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-extraction-2026-05-07.md\n candidate S7. Sub-deadline (<=2026-10-31). Confidence 70\n reflects EU regulatory pace slow but CRMA explicitly designed\n for designation. Domain-correlated with PRED-20260507-015 (S8\n China REE list expansion) but mechanistically distinct:\n EU action vs Chinese action.\n\n - id: PRED-20260507-015\n cluster_id: cluster-1-china-us-trade-tactical\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 60% probability that China will NOT add any rare earth\n element (Nd, Pr, Sm, Eu, Gd) to its formal MOFCOM export-control\n list -- beyond the existing April 2025 7-mineral notice (Sb, Bi,\n In, Mo, etc.) -- before 2026-10-31.\n confidence_pct: 60\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n english.mofcom.gov.cn announcements + Reuters/Bloomberg/Argus\n + Adamas Intelligence trade trackers. Resolves true if no\n REE-list-expansion notice appears before 2026-10-31.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260501_1416_European_Defense.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-01\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-07\"\n notes: |\n Backfill entry, 2026-05-07 batch (reopen per D-QA-12 = Opcion A).\n Source: reports/predictions-retroactive-extraction-2026-05-07.md\n candidate S8. Sub-deadline (<=2026-10-31). Confidence 60\n reflects coin-flip-leaning -- active escalation already\n documented (April 2025 7-mineral controls), but REE-class\n expansion is a discrete step requiring explicit MOFCOM action.\n Distinct directionally from PRED-20260501-002 (China imposes\n REE export restrictions Dy/Tb) which has 18-month window;\n this is the same-direction sub-deadline counterpart.\n\n - id: PRED-20260508-001\n cluster_id: cluster-1-china-us-trade-tactical\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 45% probability that MOFCOM Notice 61 receives a second\n suspension (Scenario A) by 2026-11-10.\n confidence_pct: 45\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-11-10\"\n observable_condition: |\n Resolves true if MOFCOM publishes a second suspension or extension\n notice by 2026-11-10; resolves false if Notice 61 enters de jure full\n enforcement, or is formally revoked, by that date. Verification\n source: english.mofcom.gov.cn announcements.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260508_1217_Critical_Minerals.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-10\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-10\"\n notes: |\n Embedded in §VIII Test A as Scenario A. Confidence 45 reflects\n (a) the October 2025 Trump-Xi Busan summit framework established\n Beijing's revealed preference for ambiguity-as-leverage over\n discrete re-enforcement — a perpetually-threatened-suspended\n Notice 61 generates continuous Western supply-chain uncertainty\n cost while preserving diplomatic optionality, (b) Xi-Trump summit\n cadence + tariff-deal trajectory favours repeat trade-bargained\n suspension at the 2026-11-10 expiry, (c) §VIII Test A scenario\n distribution: A 45% / B selective re-enforcement 35% / C full\n re-enforcement 20%. Not 55 to respect that B+C collectively carry\n 55% mass — Scenario A is modal not dominant. Not 35 to respect\n October 2025's directional signal that Beijing prefers cycling\n over rupture.\n\n - id: PRED-20260508-002\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 30% probability that MOFCOM publishes Notice 61 implementing\n regulations operationalising Order 834 enforcement infrastructure by\n 2026-10-31.\n confidence_pct: 30\n confidence_label: lean\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n Resolves true (Scenario B1) if MOFCOM or General Administration of\n Customs publishes formal implementing regulations citing Order 834\n (April 2026) and Notice 61 (paused) by 2026-10-31; resolves false\n (Scenarios B2/B3) if zero such regulations appear in\n english.mofcom.gov.cn announcements or the State Council Gazette by\n then. Verification source: english.mofcom.gov.cn announcements +\n State Council Gazette.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260508_1217_Critical_Minerals.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-10\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-10\"\n notes: |\n Embedded in §VIII Test B Scenario B1 (sub-deadline ≤ 2026-10-31).\n Confidence 30 reflects (a) Order 834 (April 2026) administrative\n pathway exists and could extend to Notice 61-specific\n operationalisation, (b) implementing regulations typically publish\n ≥10 days before enforcement, so pre-2026-10-31 publication would\n signal preemptive preparation for Test A Scenarios B/C,\n (c) the leverage-via-uncertainty mechanism (§VIII Test A)\n structurally favours retaining ambiguity. Triangulation:\n P(intent to enforce by 2026-11-10) = P(Test-A B) + P(C) = 35% + 20%\n = 55%; P(advance regs publish | intent) ≈ 50% conditional on\n ambiguity-vs-commitment trade-off → joint ≈ 27.5%, rounded to 30.\n Not 40 to respect dominant Scenario B2 (partial preparatory steps,\n 50%) — incremental Order 834 build without Notice 61-specific\n publication is more consistent with ambiguity-as-leverage. Not 20\n to respect Order 834's existing administrative pathway makes\n preemptive publication mechanically feasible.\n\n - id: PRED-20260508-003\n brand: shadow-dynamics\n statement: |\n We assess 70% probability that at least one verifiable Japanese OR\n South Korean industrial importer publicly reports continuing\n dysprosium OR terbium OR samarium licensing delays or shipment\n disruptions under Announcement 18 between brief publish (2026-05-08)\n and 2026-10-31.\n confidence_pct: 70\n confidence_label: likely\n falsifiable_by_date: \"2026-10-31\"\n observable_condition: |\n Resolves true (Scenario C1) if METI, Japan Customs trade statistics,\n Korean Ministry of Trade, or any major Japanese/Korean industrial\n importer (Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Hyundai, Samsung) publicly\n discloses heavy REE licensing delay or shipment disruption attributed\n to Announcement 18 enforcement during the period; resolves false\n (Scenarios C2/C3) otherwise. Verification source: METI announcements,\n KITA trade data, Nikkei/Yonhap news coverage, and major importer\n disclosures.\n outcome: null\n brier_contribution: null\n brief_source: SD_20260508_1217_Critical_Minerals.html\n published_date: \"2026-05-10\"\n created_date: \"2026-05-10\"\n notes: |\n Embedded in §VIII Test C Scenario C1 (sub-deadline ≤ 2026-10-31).\n Confidence 70 reflects (a) February 2026 Japanese halt established\n operational pattern (§II.2.2) — selective enforcement under\n Announcement 18 already documented with verification sources,\n (b) base-rate ~0.33 verified incidents/month → Poisson(λ≈2) over\n the 5.8-month window: P(≥1 incident) = 1 - e⁻² ≈ 87%; multiplied\n by P(public verification | incident) ≈ 0.75 (multi-channel\n verification but ~25% private-resolution leakage) ≈ 65%; plus\n the ~10% diplomatic-removal counter-mass anchors ~70%, (c) listed-\n importer disclosure obligations (Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi,\n Hyundai, Samsung) plus METI/KITA/Nikkei/Yonhap channels make\n public surfacing high-probability when incidents occur. Not 80\n to respect ~30% mass on private resolution (C2) or diplomatic\n removal (C3). Not 60 to respect that Announcement 18's permanent\n dual-use designation ensures enforcement infrastructure persists\n independent of Notice 61 status — base rate is structurally\n maintained.\n"}